Buy now, pay later (BNPL) has moved from fringe payment option to mainstream checkout feature. eMarketer forecasts 86.5 million US BNPL users in 2026, with total payment volume reaching $94.29 billion, a 20.8% increase year over year. And according to eMarketer’s February 2026 BNPL FAQ, BNPL now accounts for 1.5% of total US retail sales, with Millennials and Gen Z comprising roughly 65% of all users.
BNPL providers are not just changing the way consumers make purchases. They can also function as strategic affiliates for your brand. With that in mind, here is a closer look at how economic conditions are influencing consumer spending and what the latest BNPL data means for your partnership marketing strategy.
Key Takeaways
- Buy now, pay later has crossed into mainstream retail, with 86.5 million US users forecast for 2026 and payment volume growing over 20% year over year.
- BNPL providers function as strategic affiliates, not just payment tools. The right BNPL partnerships can drive measurable lifts in average order value (AOV), conversion rates, and repeat purchase behavior.
- Millennials and Gen Z dominate BNPL adoption, making these partnerships particularly effective for brands targeting younger, digitally native shoppers.
- Managing BNPL partnerships through a performance-based affiliate framework gives brands the attribution data and commission structure needed to scale efficiently.
How are economic conditions shaping consumer spending in 2026?
Consumers are navigating a challenging spending environment shaped by persistent inflation, elevated interest rates, and ongoing uncertainty. The result is a shopper who is more deliberate about large purchases and more receptive to flexible payment options that break up the cost.
eMarketer’s April 2026 data found that 54% of US BNPL users say they would not have been able to make ends meet without installment loans. That number climbs to 62% among parents with young children and 59% among Millennials. BNPL is no longer just a nice-to-have checkout feature. For a significant share of consumers, it is a financial planning tool.
This shift creates a direct opportunity for brands. Offering BNPL may encourage consumers to complete purchases they might otherwise abandon, particularly for higher-ticket items where sticker shock is a real conversion barrier.
What does the latest BNPL data show about consumer behavior?
The numbers tell a consistent story: BNPL is associated with higher spend, stronger conversions, and repeat-purchase opportunities.
Spend per user is climbing steadily
BNPL users are not just buying more often. They are spending more per transaction. eMarketer’s 2025 BNPL forecast found that spend per user surpassed $1,000 for the first time in 2024 and is projected to reach $1,380.65 by 2028, driven by BNPL expansion into higher-ticket categories like travel and healthcare.
The global market is approaching $560 billion
GlobeNewswire’s 2025 BNPL Global Business Report projects the global BNPL payment market will reach $560.1 billion in 2025, a 13.7% increase for the year. By 2030, the market is forecast to reach $911.8 billion.
Millennials and Gen Z are the core BNPL audience
eMarketer’s 2026 BNPL FAQ reports that Millennials and Gen Z together represent roughly 65% of all BNPL users, with Millennials making up 34.6% of users on their own. For brands targeting younger demographics, BNPL partnerships are a direct line to the most active segment of the market.
BNPL drives significant AOV and conversion lifts
Affirm’s 2025 partnership data with Stripe found that merchants offering Affirm see 70% higher average order values, while Stripe merchants saw up to a 14% revenue lift. The effect can be strongest for higher-ticket items where payment flexibility helps reduce price friction.
BNPL volume is growing across major providers
Adobe Analytics data cited by Reuters in 2025 found that US consumers spent $56.3 billion via BNPL in the first eight months of 2025, up 8.1% from the same period in 2024. PayPal Pay Later alone saw BNPL volume grow over 20% year over year in Q3 2025.
How does BNPL function as an affiliate channel?
BNPL providers operate on a performance-based model that maps directly onto the affiliate marketing framework. When a consumer selects BNPL at checkout, the provider pays the merchant upfront minus a fee, then collects installments from the consumer. For brands, this means BNPL partners can often be managed within a partnership marketing framework, alongside affiliate and other nontraditional partners.
The partner spotlight on Klarna illustrates how this works in practice. Klarna and similar providers drive incremental traffic and conversions through their own consumer-facing platforms, loyalty programs, and financing tools, functioning as a distinct affiliate partner type that goes well beyond the traditional coupon or content publisher model.
Managing these partnerships through a structured partnership marketing framework gives brands visibility into what each BNPL partner is contributing to revenue, along with the data needed to negotiate better placements and commission structures.
How do you build a BNPL affiliate strategy that drives revenue?
The most effective BNPL affiliate strategies treat BNPL providers as a distinct partner tier within a broader partnership marketing ecosystem, not as a standalone payment feature.
Acceleration Partners helped one global retailer take exactly this approach. Using a data-driven strategy to negotiate better media placements through BNPL partners and existing affiliate partners, the client’s new BNPL partnerships drove $46 million in revenue, 49% of which came from Millennials.
To get there, brands need a partner management team with the industry expertise to identify the right BNPL partners for their category, structure performance-based compensation that aligns with program goals, and use data insights to continuously optimize placements and payouts.
Frequently asked questions
What is buy now, pay later and how does it work?
Buy now, pay later (BNPL) is a point-of-purchase financing option that lets consumers split the cost of a purchase into smaller installments, typically four payments over six weeks, often interest-free. Unlike traditional credit cards, most BNPL providers do not require a hard credit check. The provider pays the merchant upfront minus a fee, then collects payments directly from the consumer.
How does BNPL differ from a traditional affiliate partner?
Traditional affiliates like content publishers or coupon sites drive traffic to your site and earn a commission on resulting sales. BNPL providers function similarly but add a financing layer: they bring their own consumer base, drive purchase intent through their platforms, and can be tracked and compensated through the same affiliate infrastructure. The key difference is that BNPL partners also influence conversion at checkout, not just at the top of the funnel.
Which demographics use BNPL the most?
Millennials and Gen Z dominate BNPL adoption, comprising roughly 65% of all users according to eMarketer’s 2026 BNPL FAQ. Millennials represent 34.6% of users on their own. Brands targeting younger, digitally native shoppers may find BNPL partnerships particularly effective for reaching this audience.
What impact does BNPL have on average order value?
The impact is significant. Affirm’s 2025 data found that merchants offering Affirm see 70% higher average order values and a 14% revenue lift overall. The effect is strongest for higher-ticket items where payment flexibility directly removes the conversion barrier.
How do I measure the performance of BNPL affiliate partners?
The same metrics that apply to any affiliate partner apply here: clicks, conversion rate, average order value, revenue driven, and new customer acquisition rate. What makes BNPL partners distinct is that their impact often shows up in AOV and conversion rate more than in raw traffic volume. Tracking these metrics at the partner level, not just program-wide, is what separates programs that scale from ones that plateau.
How do I get started with BNPL affiliate partnerships?
The starting point is identifying which BNPL providers are most active in your product category and customer demographic, then structuring a performance-based partnership that gives you clear attribution data from day one. Acceleration Partners combines data-driven decision-making with partnership marketing expertise to help brands recruit the right BNPL partners and build the infrastructure to measure and scale them.
